Yesterday Webinar Notes

Hi All,

as promised :)

Quick notes on forex market and trading techniques from Courtney’s 31-Aug-09 Webinar:

1) We can now expect more volatility in the market. We are going into a period when people will trade more actively. Looking at ’08, a lot of futures contracts break out in Aug.

2) Reversal Bars (RB) are excellent entry points in a trending market

• If number of bullish RBs > number of bearish RB => Bull market
• If number of bearish RB > number of bullish RBs => Bear market
• We can use RB as day trades, to enter into positions or to add on to positions.
• Stop Loss is at the other end of bar. When using RB, we have to be aggressive in tightening stop loss. Can use swing lows or any other methods to tighten stop loss.

3) AUD-USD

• Watch for a down move.
• But don’t enter market now since ADX is still down. Wait for ADX to move up. Be Discipline!

4) EUR-JPY

• Can start to put in sell orders
• Take a SMALL TA-short position (this doesn’t look like a big move)

5) EUR-USD

• Wait for ADX to increase
• Expected to fall in 2~3 weeks.
• Stand aside for this pair. Short correlated, weaker GBP-USD instead.

6) GBP-USD

• Courtney currently trading this pair. Short using 20 Day Momentum.

7) USD-CHF

• Don’t enter. ADX down despite breakouts.

8) USD-JPY

• 2 scenarios can happen:
  i. market breaks down
  ii. market recovers back up

9) When markets are ‘psychotic’ (collapsing n rallying widely) WITHOUT trending, stand aside. Eg. Soyabean meal end Aug-09

10) When a market closes around the same level in consecutive days, mkt is in balance. Use Weekly stochastic n seasonality to predict which way it’ll move.

11) Sept is the weakest month for stocks. Mkt bottoms in Oct.

12) AUD-JPY

• Weekly Stoch: Can short the market.Courtney doesn’t trade this pair due to high spreads

13) USD-JPY

• If we missed a signal to enter, we should wait for the next signal to enter. (ie. Not at the moment)

14) Inside Day Trades

• More profitable in volatile markets. i.e. increasing ATR

15) Diversify through time

• We trade each technique independently (ignore other techniques when trading one.
• Exception: Weekly SSD. Combine trades and use the tightest stop loss

16) Intraday trades.

• Techniques are generally applicable, eg. TA, CBO. Except Coflex as there’ll be too much transactional costs.
• Hourly or half-hourly is recommended

Disclaimer: The minutes-taker cannot be held responsible for any discrepancies. Read at your own risk. Listen to webinar recordings.

Copyright of Ms P.